gm
Magus here. Welcome to my second weekly crypto market analysis post. Let’s get into it.
Macro & Bitcoin
Core plan hasn't changed — expecting higher prices by the end of the year
But local trend has stalled, and summertime chop seems likely, so I’ve shifted to defense for now
It doesn't make sense to bet on continuation until we see a bottom form
Hoping we play out similarly to the past
Magstradamus — pain going into Q3, frontrun bid end of Q3, wipeout early Q4, then up Q4
TLDR; survive the pain over next few weeks/months so you can take advantage of the giga rally later in the year
Levels
107k — next local resistance (anchored VWAP from local swing high)
100k — next local support (round number + yearly VWAP value area high)
120k — next major resistance
80k — next major support
Medium Timeframe
Last drive by BTC was weaker signaling momentum loss
It’s higher probability that BTC trades down more first before going up
If BTC loses 100k-104k, the next area of support is the 90k-95k region
Momentum is still up, so a dip to 95k could be a good buy
Have scenarios in mind but don't overcommit to any of them — react to what the market tells you
TLDR; not interested in adding risk until strength proven here or BTC trades down to 95k
Positioning
Spot long BTC with hedge
Derisked altcoins
No open perps
Be very aggressive taking profit on perps
TLDR; Don't give the money back and be ready to load up again when everyone else has given up
Alts
Exposure is very low right now
Alts will be the play when BTC gives the risk-on signal again
Don't want to preposition in alts or always be long on them — timing matters
TLDR; Actively trading alts can be great but be patient
P.S. Questions or want to see anything else in these? Hit 'reply' to this email and let me know.
P.P.S. If you want more in-depth analysis like this check out The Paragon.