gm
Magus here. Let’s get into the weekly outlook.
BTC Macro
I’m still bullish on the high timeframe
But I pivoted to defense at 111k after seeing momentum loss in late May
Expecting summertime chop but the recent strength from the 100k lows could change things
Magstradamus
I’m expecting BTC to do something similar to what we saw the last 2 years
Momentum loss and chop going into the summer and Q3
Wipeout in Q3
Local runup late Q3
Local selloff early Q4
Next major leg Q4
Take all this with a grain of salt and be flexible with the details
In general, the market isn't going to let everyone ride the move for free
Levels
108k: local resistance
120k: next major upside target
150k: major upside target
100k-102k: local support
95k: next major support
Don't want to see 100k lost. We probably see it tested if the summertime chop thesis plays out. Want to see moves below it get bought up quickly.
Medium Timeframe
The weaker drive at the end of May signaled momentum loss
But the strength from the recent 100k bottom says we could see continuation this week
Watch for how price reacts on pullbacks to gauge bullishness
For example, does the 30-day rolling VWAP get defended on the next pullback?
I’m still buying dips but being more cautious
TLDR; still playing defense but watching how BTC behaves on pullbacks and how it forms a local range. This will tell us whether to go full risk-on.
Positioning
BTC spot hedged from 111k
Very little alt exposure
If I go risk-on first I’ll cut the hedge then add alts
Aggressive profit-taking on perps (not sitting in them forever)
Alts
Alt sentiment is the worst I’ve seen
The average CT participant and IRL friends who were only interested in alts are now interested in BTC, which says a big alt move will eventually come
This is a typical pattern — alts don't do well, people get complacent, alts send
HYPE and FARTCOIN look the best
Intraday Setups
Momentum continuation long: entry around daily VWAP, target 2nd deviation band of the dVWAP (this came at 09:55 ET)
Momentum loss short: entry deviating 2nd deviation band of dVWAP + price showing momentum loss, target previous range value area high or high volume node
Singles long: this is almost fully retracing impulse so don't want to long this if see price grinding down efficiently
Value Reclaim Setup: trade into late May range above 108k and buy retest of that range’s value area low; target just beyond its value area high
Good luck out there
Magus
P.S. Questions or want to see anything else in these? Hit 'reply' to this email and let me know.
P.P.S. If you want more in-depth analysis like this or a deeper explanation of my intraday setups check out The Paragon.