Alpha Mail #70
Interview with SplitCapital and CBS asks whether 20 IQ season over?
Split Capital has been trading crypto since 2017.
What I thought was catastrophically bad for me, which was the BitMEX implosion, ended up being one of the best things in my life.
What’s the worst thing about trading?
Being conned into believing that you're making money when, in reality, you don't know. That's the scariest part. You think you’re profitable, but you’re not willing to look around the room and notice that everyone else made money, and instead think you’re good at what you do. Then at some point, way down the line, you find out that you're bad at what you do.
Can I make money tomorrow? That's the fundamental question; that's what we're after. And it’s very difficult to answer. Unless you're in tune with markets, you don't realize how fast the water is boiling in the pot.
Read the full interview >>
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CBS: IS 20 IQ SEASON OVER?
The markets are baffling. They defy logic. We’re at the point in time now.
“How can the market be going up when the conditions are this bad?”
This is one of the most common statements of bewilderment I’ve read as well as the most popular form of bearish conviction in the markets making fresh lows.
Yet, despite the all-famous “macro” picture, the markets respond in a way that many find confusing.
The issue is not why this is confusing, it’s that people spend so much time trying to wrap their heads around how this could possibly be happening. The simple answer is, who cares.
Being involved with the markets, you should focus on whether the market is trending up or down.
Since the start of 2023, the crypto markets have been trending up and convincingly so.
The reality has been that dip-buying has been rewarded, being a low-IQ ape has been incredibly profitable, and generally speaking bears have had a very rough time of it.
But, and of course, you knew that was coming, there is reason to be concerned through these regions of price action.
We’ve been operating in a 9-month range and in March we finally saw that level break. The market has been very good in providing continuation, but now shows the first signs of weakness.
In the scenario of the multi-month range breakout we expect the trend to be hard and fast, it shouldn’t pull back and it shouldn’t give nice retests.
We’ve seen that up until the price action that transpired last week.
Now for the first time, BTC has lost a former resistance area, unable to turn it into support. This offers an insight into the weakening momentum of this move higher.
If you couple that with the $28k - $31k resistance region we moved into it could prove to be a trend-changing failure.
But it’s not all doom and gloom; we’ve previously seen a significant pullback on BTC before we blasted higher. The DXY still looks incredibly weak and could support the bulls, especially if we break the 101 Weekly support level.
The next FED meeting is May 2nd-3rd and I don’t expect the market to make too many moves prior to that happening.
What we do know is that the 20 IQ season seems to be behind us. There have been significant failings for the uptrending market, and we’re simply not getting the response we were a couple of weeks ago.
It’s important to acknowledge and adapt, failure to do so will leave you cursing the markets when in truth, it’s your inability to accept the picture they are painting.