Alpha Mail #59
Jackis, Curb Your Enthusiasm, and The Harvest.
PARTNER: THE HAVEN
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Jackis has been trading for over a decade across several markets, including FX, Indices and crypto.
“Once you stop learning, you are finished.”
JIM TALBOT: CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM
People have gone way overboard with their expectations of this market and this rally/environment. Even on the dip Sunday night, the aggression with which people's bias changed on a few 100-point moves is insane to me.
I'm going to go back to my quote of keep taking profits.
If you can capture 2/3/4% in this environment consistently, you will fair better than anyone looking for significant trend shifts.
I have noticed a shift in flow. For the duration of the current and continuing bear market, most rallies have ended with initiative sellers reversing momentum and pushing us lower. There have been people exiting left and right for months. During this rally, I have observed that since the FTX fallout, the rush to sell has dramatically diminished.
Now I think we are in a situation where this move loses momentum based on buyers running out of steam rather than sellers stepping in.
People always ask, “who’s left to sell?” Well, it’s everyone starting to take profit off these moves out of impatience.
You could argue that what little demand there is with an appetite for risk ends up shooting everyone in the foot. After the market draws in what little demand there is, when they decide to sell, they are selling to even weaker demand.
The idea that the bear market is over and that the “bottom’s in!” I think it is ludicrous. Play the long game and stop looking several days out and start thinking several months out at least.
How would I play this market? Liberally. For the past two or three weeks, we have had moves with no real secondary leg following up. I think it’s partly due to how low that participation level is.
So take what you can... park that feeling of FOMO. I don’t think you are missing anything long-term. And relaaaax.
CBS: THE HARVEST BY PER KRISTIAN STOVELAND
The Caretaker awakes. After a millennia of slumber it must again usher its minions into the expanse. It must sustain. It must replenish… So it guides its horde out to the stars, visiting countless worlds to restart the cycle. For an eternity the cycle has repeated, minding and tending this garden of worlds. Now it is time for the garden to give back. This event has come to be known as The Harvest.
Art Blocks has been strong during the crypto bear market as, once again, people look for the comfort of quality and an opportunity for a lower price point entry (in $) to some of the blue-chip projects. I’ve already covered Squiggles.
One of the latest projects from Art Blocks Curated, The Harvest by Per Kristian Stoveland, has been making moves this week.
A 400-piece collection which beautifully unfolds before your eyes with rays of colour blistering down into rugged landscapes.
Kickstarted by a 40ETH sale, the price quickly began to rise as speculators moved in to secure “floor” pieces spiking from the 5-6ETH level into the 11-12ETH level. This also helped to move The Harvest into the Top 10 most expensive Art Blocks Curated sets.
The market has cooled off a little since then, but prices remain firm at around 10ETH. Per Kristian Stoveland has also given collectors access to high-quality prints for any pieces they own. These require a purchase but will be printed, hand-signed and shipped to you for display where you see fit.
Interest sparked by a large purchase can often raise alarm bells for FOMO from other collectors. But the universal acceptance of the quality of The Harvest is probably a strong sign that this collection will nestle within the top Curated sets we’ve seen.
This is a collection I would keep an eye on, watch for the slowdown in the market as emotions cool off, and see where price settles in the coming weeks. We should be able to gather more information after that.
I picked up edition #357 and immediately requested my print.
I love these pieces, the way the landscape unfolds, the rays of colour, the stories you can manifest through the movement of the terrain, the colours of the rays, the force and spread of them.
It’s a wonderful set for evoking emotion, storytelling and, of course, for simply appreciating brilliantly vibrant (or dark) pieces of art.
#357 will proudly sit in the CBS gallery, both online and in the physical world.