Alpha Mail #58
Irncrypt, Cope and Fomo, and Azuki.
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Irncrypt is has been a crypto trader since 2017, his style is primarily range-based, using price action concepts and liquidity theory.
“Find what resonates with you and understand that less is more.”
JIM TALBOT: COPE AND FOMO
Recently I get labelled a “coper” and a salty bear, much like every other rally for the past 12+ months. Here are a few reasons why that's not true, and hopefully, you can learn from this.
As far as cope and FOMO go, these feelings are detrimental to a trader and will lead you to make poor decisions based on elevated emotions. If you miss a move, there's always another one.
We are in a 24h market; trade it when it’s right for you to do so.
Money is made through flow and not price. Price does not equate to strength; the pattern in my trading worth considering is the fact I trade during the highest participation periods.
Missing moves during low participation doesn't matter to me, as when participation is low, my conviction is equally low. Joining in on moves with large participation, good liquidity, and good flow is all I care about.
When participation is high, the moves have more strength and more validity.
How we arrive at price is more important to me than the price itself.
People always assume higher prices mean a healthier market, but it is not always the case.
Being confident in determining the environment in which you like to trade is an important aspect of your trading system, one of the most important aspects.
When you figure this out, you can go hard during the high conviction periods and relax during the low conviction periods. People over-trade and try to make consistent gains month on month. That’s fine for some, but I like to trade in windows of conviction where I can focus.
As someone with ADHD, I think it's good to take that and use it to your advantage, turning a weakness into a strength. I like trading when I don't have time for outside distractions, and I can enter this sort of hyper-focused zone where it's almost like tunnel vision.
As soon as I have enough time to think and ponder and procrastinate, that's when I need to stop. This is a period of that for me. The market is a shell of its former self.
You could count on one hand the number of heavy hitters pushing weight in this market, and that environment just doesn't suit me.
As far as I see it currently, the main juice was squeezed out of this market months ago and what's left is a fight for scraps.
I don't see sustained trending moves in either direction as I don't think the level of participation needed is there anymore currently. So I will continue trading it how I have been, picking my battles and trading around news events where there is a small window of high participation where I can potentially capture a few percentage points in a short space of time.
CBS: AZUKI - GARDEN PARADISE
The project was launched in early 2022 and boasts one of the strongest communities in the NFT space. Inspired by anime and skate culture, the beautiful art, traits and variety on offer in the collection is something that has thrilled fans and enticed collectors.
Without a doubt, the strongest anime-style PFP project in the space, Azuki has been a solid project since its launch.
In the peak of NFT summer, Azuki went to a 29ETH floor before a wave of negative stories started to circulate and put the reputation of Azuki and its founder, Zagabond, under threat.
Since that point in time, the value of Azuki is nearly 3x off the floor, the project continues to build and strengthen, and its community remains stronger than ever.
With one major project airdrop completed already - in the form of Beanz, a new cheaper entry point into the world of Azuki, the value remains high for the project.
I feel the Azuki world has huge potential in the NFT space, as the flagship for Anime PFPs and the ultimate bluechip on that side.
From an art perspective and trait perspective, I almost think Azuki is the perfect project.
Even as I type this out, I feel myself wanting to dive in and pick up even more. The potential for Anime projects is huge, especially as we continue to see more global volume and interest in the NFT space.
Given the cross-section of demographics Azuki plays into, it’s well-positioned to continue to absorb a huge % of the market share.
How about the prices now? Well, we’re still -50% off that ATH region, but we are up a 3x off the floor. Perhaps some short-term correction in the value of ETH may impact the pricing (as covered last week here)
For a longer-term investor who wants exposure to a project that cuts through so many different spheres of interest and for actually using your NFTs as a digital representation online, I don’t think you can complain too much about a 13ETH floor.
Actually, I think I will go and grab another; I’ve absolutely re-hyped myself up about this one.