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INTERVIEW: DAVID BELLE
David discusses the chaotic nature of markets, the threat of left tail risk and elitist overlords wiping their own arses.
SIMPLE, RATIONAL, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
by @jimtalbot
If you have been reading along these past few weeks then you know my targets. Stay below 19,700 and a breakdown would lead to 13/15k with extended targets at 9.8k depending on how things develop. So as far as this week goes, I'm just going to show you some rational simple analysis using critical thinking.
Stay below 19,700 and a breakdown would lead to 13/15k.
I try to park my emotional bias at the door when I'm forming an opinion on the market. All I'm trying to ascertain is ‘Does market structure line up with the microstructure of how participants are positioned in the current price range?’.
If so, how do I get aboard it?
If not, how do I exploit it?
Currently, I think the market is still telling us it’s in a downtrend that might just be starting to pick up steam again. Therefore my plan remains to get aboard.
As far as low time frames go, we are still compressing between $18,800 and $20,115. There is a bit of a volume gap between $19,350 and $19,780 that might get filled out before we finally resolve this range.
Shown below on the left of the chart is the value area for this entire range. My guess is it fills out fully, finding a balance between buyers and sellers at around $19,600.
What I'm noticing on the lower time frames is a shift in momentum back towards the downside. The first indications were the 4h divergences into key S/R flips. If these were bull setups you would take them without blinking and are an indication of a trend.
If these were bull setups you would take them without blinking
The disconnect between spot and derivatives is another cause for concern. Whilst not a perfect indication over such a timeframe, there is still significant buy absorption happening based on derivatives flow which has been predominantly aggressive buying (market orders).
The disconnect between spot and derivatives is another cause for concern.
There has also been a significant increase in open interest, around 100k BTC in new positions within this small range alone. The obvious conclusion is a large portion of this interest is long orders opening into passive (limit) sellers.
The 6h 200 EMA is still trending down, it would take a significant push to break it.
Not to mention awful weekly candles on ES and NQ.
Overall then it's not looking particularly good. If it manages to get above $19,700, then I think upside is limited to the $20,500 area. Again, if hold that, then we will have to change our bias but until then…
Liquidity is to the downside.
CBS: MONTHLY NFT REVIEW
by @coldbloodshill
Let’s take a look back through the month and see some of the top performers so far, there are a couple of familiar faces in there.
I’ll start with the blue-chips.
CRYPTOPUNKS
Not too much to say about Punks aside from their stickiness remains. Not a huge amount of volume coming through but we did see the sale of 5944 for 980ETH ($1.28m)
BAYC
Again, like Punks, not much movement, prices ticking a little lower but with Otherdeeds running a little higher this month we’re still seeing the ecosystem very strong.
CLONEX
CloneX saw some movement in the past week with the announcement of Project Animus with their “eggs” delivered via airdrop in November and the hatching planned for 2023.
Continuing with the theme, CloneX has continually provided value through airdrops and it adds another to the collection here.
You can check out the trailer here:
COOL CATS
Creeping back with a little more volume and prices rising 70% from the low, perhaps a little cute szn is on the cards for CC. An incredibly strong project undergoing some big changes with leadership and structure. Any fan of the cute PFP shouldn’t be without one.
RENGA
A little cooling off for RENGA after the run to 3ETH.
Overall another quiet month for NFTs. Blue chips continue to see their value holding and I suspect any downside movement for ETH would probably strengthen their position with buyers looking to take advantage of the “cheaper” buys.
Nothing else has really stood out aside from the CloneX price pop and associated news. Volume across the markets slowing down again, OpenSea volume is unfortunately looking starting to mirror a lot of crypto charts.
But, in times of reduced volatility and falling prices, we have some of the best opportunities to plan for the future.