Magus here. Welcome to the first edition of our weekly analysis. Let’s get into it.
Bitcoin & Macro
Waiting to see if we break the seasonality schematic and trend up in the summertime
Not expecting it to but positioned for it optimistically and ready to play defense
Breaking out would require a big suit bid, which is more likely later in year
Early momentum loss signs showing — last BTC impulse was weaker and it pulled back to right above previous range
Levels
120k is the next likely resistance
150k is a reasonable cycle top estimate, probably later in the year
100k is next major support, then 80k
Remember, trading is a competitive game so most levels will get frontrun or blasted through
Medium Timeframe
If BTC bleeds then everything gets bodied
Balls tingling says we're in the later stages of this local trend but dips are still getting bought
Key things to watch for: What does it look like when we dip? Is the response weaker? Making lower highs?
TLDR: Worrying signs are here, but you'll have time to react. Stay light on your feet
Positioning
My approach to portfolio management is to respect the trend and position into it but keep in mind that the trend could fail any time
Previous positioning: BTC SOL FARTCOIN DOGE SUI BONK HYPE
Closed SUI, scaled back 50% on the rest of spot alts and put on partial hedge
Was feeling euphoric, which is rare, so took it as a good signal to take some off
Selling some frees you up to take fresh risks when it makes sense
People are getting comfortable taking excess risk
Be very aggressive with profit-taking on perps
Alts
You want to see BTC go sideways so you can ride alts up
Strong alts have already gone up so the next opportunity will be in the laggards or buying dips on outperformers
Feel like we wash people out and get another drive up where we'll see if this is the end of this local trend
It’s BTC season so only focus on alts when BTC is strong